Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 11.966014 13.461963 15.153220 17.223874 19.714160 22.643193 26.395131
2025-04-06 9.593399 11.360197 13.512456 16.378046 20.174181 25.154226 32.404671
2025-04-13 8.254257 10.092129 12.439836 15.743923 20.423265 27.068826 37.751060
2025-04-20 8.086185 10.223604 13.095477 17.391277 23.956906 34.208442 52.893773
2025-04-27 7.615548 9.866155 13.004979 17.922607 25.903388 39.376442 66.795951
2025-05-04 6.918563 9.108053 12.238230 17.298869 25.862417 41.157215 75.003726
2025-05-11 6.606822 8.860479 12.176915 17.742838 27.653506 46.655216 93.639722
2025-05-18 6.181643 8.402963 11.741951 17.504392 28.172476 49.805280 108.478686
2025-05-25 5.818513 8.005777 11.357261 17.291233 28.684166 53.065706 125.664550
2025-06-01 5.530267 7.698626 11.083596 17.229722 29.468620 57.156745 148.386117
2025-06-08 5.199041 7.300051 10.625400 16.778233 29.375698 59.138388 165.683681
2025-06-15 4.989549 7.078591 10.440430 16.805560 30.294351 63.969250 198.652690
2025-06-22 4.662331 6.660138 9.911239 16.163512 29.731023 64.945121 217.848503
2025-06-29 4.341492 6.235001 9.343197 15.394061 28.773030 64.601816 231.256070
2025-07-06 4.079961 5.892014 8.893517 14.812077 28.161378 65.137966 250.908692
2025-07-13 4.160856 6.117558 9.455415 16.321747 32.883924 84.526272 433.862540
2025-07-20 4.083128 6.069349 9.519473 16.807573 35.164686 97.190720 625.931505
2025-07-27 3.870580 5.777948 9.114616 16.237199 34.491174 98.245501 701.244197
2025-08-03 3.798715 5.725773 9.151728 16.643257 36.636597 112.253856 1053.819074
2025-08-10 3.655388 5.540488 8.923267 16.425218 36.933812 118.383266 1344.512290
2025-08-17 3.524642 5.370970 8.714114 16.230211 37.269232 125.043109 1757.560288
2025-08-24 3.418258 5.239627 8.570526 16.173924 38.032578 134.580143 2501.931947
2025-08-31 3.279328 5.043583 8.288428 15.760551 37.577705 137.271695 3076.475335